The dealer does not make decisions. The dealer follows a fixed set of rules: hit below 17, stand on 17 or above. This makes the dealer completely predictable from a mathematical standpoint. The only variable is the upcard, and each upcard produces a known bust probability.
The numbers
- Dealer shows 2: busts about 35% of the time
- Dealer shows 3: busts about 37% of the time
- Dealer shows 4: busts about 40% of the time
- Dealer shows 5: busts about 42% of the time
- Dealer shows 6: busts about 42% of the time
- Dealer shows 7: busts about 26% of the time
- Dealer shows 8: busts about 24% of the time
- Dealer shows 9: busts about 23% of the time
- Dealer shows 10: busts about 23% of the time
- Dealer shows A: busts about 17% of the time
The two zones
Notice the gap between 6 and 7. The bust rate drops from 42% down to 26%. That is the dividing line in basic strategy. When the dealer shows 2-6, they are in the danger zone - you play defensively and let them bust. When the dealer shows 7-A, they are likely to make a hand, so you need to build a strong total yourself.
How to use this
You do not need to memorize exact percentages at the table. Just remember the two zones. Dealer 2-6: weak, play safe, stand on lower totals, double when you can. Dealer 7-A: strong, keep hitting until you reach at least 17. This single concept drives the majority of correct basic strategy decisions.
